Destructive tornadoes rake across central US in rare 5 of 5 threat

• Dangerous storms plow east: Intense and violent tornadoes have destroyed homes and farms in Missouri and Arkansas, as well as toppling a radio tower in Indiana. About 14 million people are under tornado watches from Ohio to Mississippi.

• Once-in-a-lifetime flooding: Wednesday’s storms will start multiple days of nearly nonstop rain that could trigger “generational” flooding in Arkansas, Missouri, Tennessee and Mississippi, forecasters warned.

• Supercharged rainfall: Climate change is making extreme rainfall more likely. It has intensified hourly rainfall rates in nearly 90% of large US cities since 1970, a recent study found.

Our live coverage of the storms impacting much of the central United States has moved here.

One person is confirmed dead in Cape Girardeau following severe storms, though circumstances remain unclear, the Missouri State Highway Patrol (MSHP) told CNN.

The MSHP said it cannot confirm whether the death was due to severe storm at the moment and more details will follow Thursday morning.

A tornado watch is in effect for parts of northern Alabama, eastern Kentucky, northern Mississippi and central Tennessee until 6 a.m. C.T. Thursday, according to the Storm Prediction Center.

Nearly 6 million people are impacted by the watch, which includes Nashville, Tennessee, and Tupelo, Mississippi.

A line of strong-to-severe thunderstorms will move across the watch area overnight. Even though there may be an overall weakening trend of the storms, they still could produce tornadoes with locally damaging gusts of up to 75 miles per hour, and hail of up to 1.5 inches in diameter.

Currently, 15 million people are under tornado watches, from Ohio to Mississippi.

Three people were rescued from the partially collapsed warehouse in Brownsburg, Indiana, which was hit by a tornado Wednesday night, officials told CNN.

The collapse initially left two people missing and one trapped at the Sur La Table warehouse, Kamrick Holding, a spokesperson for the Brownsburg Fire Territory, said in a statement. The missing individuals were found by co-workers, with one transported to a trauma hospital in downtown Indianapolis, about 20 kilometers (12 miles) southeast. Her condition remains undisclosed.

The tornado caused at least one wall of the warehouse to collapse, and burst ceiling pipes flooded the floor, CNN affiliate WISH-TV reported.

Four people who took shelter in a van were injured near a tornado-hit church in Ballard County, Kentucky, the local emergency management office said in a Facebook post.

One member of the group was left in critical condition.

“Four individuals sustained injuries when they attempted to take shelter in their vehicle under the carport of a church,” it said in the post.

A tornado tore through Carmel, Indiana, on Wednesday night, toppling a large radio tower downtown and ripping the front off a building, according to CNN affiliate WISH-TV.

Trees were uprooted from the saturated ground, and video shared by the outlet appeared to capture the storm in east Carmel.

The National Weather Service issued a flash flood warning, while a tornado watch is in effect until 4 a.m. for southeastern Indiana, northern Kentucky and southwestern Ohio.

Several vehicles are submerged in high waters in eastern Indianapolis, the city’s police department said in a post on X.

No one was trapped in the vehicles but police warned drivers not to “put your vehicle or your life at risk by driving into water.”

Several roads in Indianapolis may still be flooded after tonight’s heavy storms, and police urged drivers to obey road closures and watch for hidden hazards such as debris in floodwaters.

“Turn Around, Don’t Drown. Never drive through floodwaters,” the Indianapolis Metropolitan Police Department said in a separate post.

There are reports of heavy damage, including to multiple homes, in Craighead County, northeastern Arkansas, after a dangerous tornado ripped through the area, according to county administrator Brandon Shrader.

The severe storms “impacted multiple cities within the county,” Shrader said, including Bay, Lake City, Monette, Cash and Bono.

Multiple houses were damaged in Monette and emergency responders assisted two people trapped in a home. Another person was injured due to a semi-truck rollover, the county administrator said.

Lake City suffered heavy damage, which is currently “unspecified” while damage assessments are ongoing, Shrader said.

There is no reported damage at this time in Cash or Bono, Shrader said. Bay has also not reported any damage “as of yet,” Shrader said, adding: “However, we can confirm a tornado touchdown on the outside of town.”

No deaths have been reported in the county due to the storm at this time, he added.

More than 200,000 customers are without power across Indiana, Arkansas, Mississippi and Missouri, according to PowerOutage.US, as intense and violent tornadoes plow through the central US.

Here’s the breakdown of customers without power as of 11:16 p.m. E.T.

Separately, nearly 120,000 customers are without power in Michigan after being impacted by ice storms from the previous weekend.

One person is trapped in a Sur La Table warehouse after it partially collapsed in Brownsburg, Indiana, after a severe thunderstorm and possible tornado.

The Sur La Table facility “has significant structural damage with collapse” and police and fire crews are working to extract the trapped person, Brownsburg Police Department Capt. Jennifer Barrett said.

Photos from CNN affiliate WTHR show a large space with beams that appear to have fallen from the ceiling. Firefighters and other emergency personnel are at the scene.

A violent line of severe thunderstorms is stretching nearly 700 miles from Arkansas to northern Indiana and Ohio.

These storms will continue to track east overnight and will deliver the threat of damaging winds, hail and tornadoes to more of the Ohio and Tennessee valleys. Major cities from Nashville to Cleveland could be in their path.

A few powerful storms could also develop very late tonight in parts of northern Texas, including the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex. These storms could also unleash hail, damaging winds and tornadoes.

Flash flood warnings are in effect for more than 1.4 million people in parts of six states as severe thunderstorms unleash torrential rain in the central US.

Large portions of Arkansas are under flash flood warnings as well as parts of Tennessee – including Memphis – Mississippi, Missouri, Kentucky and Illinois.

Flooding will likely worsen and expand to new areas overnight as storms continue. Today is the start of a multi-day, potentially historic flood event for parts of the Mississippi and Ohio valleys.

A rare level 4 of 4 high risk of flooding rainfall is in place tomorrow for parts of Missouri, Arkansas, Tennessee, Kentucky and Illinois, according to the Weather Prediction Center.

A tornado watch is in effect for southeast Indiana, north-central Kentucky and west and central Ohio until 4 a.m. E.T. Thursday, according to the Storm Prediction Center.

Ten million people are impacted by this watch, which includes Cincinnati, Columbus and Cleveland.

A line of intense thunderstorms over western Indiana is moving eastward into the watch area. It is expected to produce a few tornadoes, along with damaging wind gusts up to 75 mph and large hail up to 1.5 inches in diameter.

Currently, 23 million people are under tornado watches from Ohio to Texas.

A dangerous storm came so close to the National Weather Service office in Paducah, Kentucky, that the forecasters there had to practice what they preach and shelter in place.

Forecasters sheltered for about 15 minutes as a likely tornado passed just to the west.

The NWS in Davenport, Iowa, stepped in to serve as backup while the Paducah forecasters protected themselves.

NWS offices have protocols in place so life-saving information like severe thunderstorm and tornado warnings don’t stop going out when an office is under threat.

It’s only meant to be a short-term, emergency solution, but the Trump administration’s DOGE cuts could make it more permanent for some offices. Around 800 NOAA employees – including NWS forecasters – were abruptly laid off at the end of February, only for many to be reinstated and immediately placed on administrative leave until the legality of their firing is settled in the courts.

The loss of forecasters at an already understaffed agency could lead to some offices doubling up on life-saving work or providing frequent backup for critically understaffed offices.

Radar gives us a clear view of the storm that produced a large and destructive tornado as it tracked through Bay and Lake City, Arkansas, earlier this evening.

From this view, the storm had an almost textbook look for a tornado-producing storm.

The fish hook-like area on the back end of the storm is called a“hook echo” and it’s a clear signal that this storm was incredibly powerful. A hook echo doesn’t always mean a tornado is in progress, but it sends a clear signal that forecasters need to pay close attention as one could form soon.

The hook forms when a storm has really strong, rotating winds that pull rain, hail and potentially other debris toward its center. The clear, wedge-shaped area that helps give the hook its shape shows where air is being sucked into the storm — like an intake. All of the rainy areas in front of and behind the storm, which show up as yellow, orange and red, are its downdrafts, or exhaust.

You can see the hook part of the storm tracking directly over Bay and then just northwest of the center of Lake City.

As a tornado was making its way through Cape Girardeau, Missouri, a meteorologist at CNN affiliate KFVS talked his audience through the disaster, all while he and his colleagues sheltered as it passed over the station.

As the tornado inched closed, chief meteorologist Grant Dade kept the radar up on air as they went into the basement to keep people up to date.

“I’ve never had to watch a tornado hit my house, hoping it’s not hitting my house,” he said, as he prepared to shelter.

While the scene outside the station wasn’t broadcast, Dade noted when the tornado passed, saying “It went right across us.”

“That was a little bit intense folks,” he said after making his way back to the camera. “I’ve never witnessed a wedge tornado come right into the station.”

He took a moment to text his family as he had “no idea the shape of my neighborhood.”

He kept talking the audience through what the radar showed until he finally heard back that his family was all right. “My family is OK and now I’m all yours,” Dade said as he continued the broadcast.

The station posted on its Facebook page everyone there was okay.

While full reports of damage are not in yet, the station said they were seeing reports of at least one house damaged.

At least five houses and one power line are down after a tornado ripped through Lake City, Arkansas on Wednesday, Mayor Cameron Tate told CNN in a phone call.

The Arkansas Division of Emergency Management has confirmed “reports of tornadoes on the ground,” public information officer Lacey Kanipe told CNN.

“We are working with local emergency management offices for situational awareness and still learning of impacts as they come in. It’s early in the event and we will release more information about potential impacts as it becomes available,” Kanipe said.

There were no immediate reports of injuries.

The tornado threat has ramped up to the extreme in the lower Mississippi Valley tonight. A nearly unbroken line of tornado warnings is stretching over 200 miles from central Arkansas into southeast Missouri.

Multiple “large and extremely dangerous” tornadoes have impacted parts of eastern Arkansas in the past hour, according to the National Weather Service. One of these tornadoes triggered a rare tornado emergency.

This is the rare level 5 of 5 high risk of severe storms unfolding in real time. These dangerous storms are approaching some population centers – like Memphis, Tennessee – and will likely continue to produce tornadoes at least into the early overnight hours.

A tornado emergency is in effect for Lake City, Arkansas, as a “large and destructive tornado” moves through the area, according to the National Weather Service.

“This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!” the NWS warned.

Tornado emergencies are the most extreme form of tornado warning. This tornado emergency is the fourth issued in the United States this year. The three others were issued during mid-March’s tornado outbreak.

It appears the tornado has already inflicted damage near Bay, Arkansas, as we’re seeing concerning radar signatures there. A so-called “debris ball” is showing up on radar, meaning that some sort of debris was tossed a few thousand feet in the air.

A tornado destroyed homes and structures near Potosi, Missouri, on Wednesday, according to state troopers. There were no deaths and everyone was accounted for, some with minor injuries, the agency said.

Timbers from homes, overturned cars and farm equipment and debris littered the landscape in the aftermath of the tornado.

Potosi is located roughly 72 miles southwest of St. Louis.

Several drone shots show the extreme damage and debris after a storm ripped through neighborhoods in Owasso, Oklahoma, Wednesday.

The damage in the Fairways and El Rio Vista neighborhoods includes parts of roofs torn off homes and sidewalks uprooted. Photos also show piles of debris tossed onto the streets.

A tornado watch was in effect early Wednesday morning for parts of Oklahoma, CNN previously reported.

There are nearly two dozen tornado warnings in effect in the central US just after 6 p.m. CDT, but the storms we are most concerned about right now are the supercells west of Memphis, Tennessee.

These storms have a classic rotation signature on radar. Storm chasers or other weather spotters have observed tornadoes in several of them.

The Memphis area could be at significant risk if these kinds of storms continue to develop.

Arkansas Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders declared a state of emergency Wednesday afternoon ahead of storms hitting the state.

She also released $250,000 from the Governor’s Disaster Response and Recovery Fund to help with recovery costs, she said in an executive order.

“Arkansas is anticipating severe storms today and potential flooding later this week,” she said in a post on X. “I’ve released $250,000 to make sure our state is prepared, and emergency responders are readying themselves to assist.”

Fierce thunderstorms have produced a tornado in eastern Arkansas.

“At 558 PM CDT, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was located over Almyra, or 12 miles southeast of Stuttgart, moving northeast at 60 mph,” the National Weather Service warned.

With a 60 mph movement speed, the tornado could tear through an area in a matter of moments.

“A large, extremely dangerous and potentially deadly tornado is on the ground. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW!”

Videos show a tornado hit Potosi, Missouri, on Wednesday as millions of people in the central US are under a tornado watch.

Potosi resident Ashley Bleckler-Akers told CNN her family is safe and they suffered no damage, despite capturing these videos of the nearby tornado.

Potosi is located roughly 72 miles southwest of St. Louis.

Severe thunderstorms are intensifying and trying to churn out tornados in southern Illinois, east of St. Louis. Tornado warnings span more than 70 miles of a particularly intense portion of the line.

An EF-1 tornado in Owasso, Oklahoma, outside of Tulsa, caused damage in the area as the storm brought winds estimated around 100 to 110 mph, the National Weather Service said.

“Our survey team has found high-end EF1 tornado damage that occurred this morning in the Owasso area,” the Weather Service office in Tulsa said on X. “More details will be forthcoming later.”

An EF-1 tornado caused damage in Vernon County, Missouri, Wednesday morning after it traveled 17 miles in 12 minutes, the National Weather Service Springfield office said.

The tornado knocked over eight train cars, damaged the roofs of several houses and inflicted “varying degrees of damage” to businesses in the area, they said in a post on X.

No injuries were reported, the post said.

A new tornado watch is in effect through 7 p.m. CDT for more than 2 million people in west-central Illinois and east-central Missouri, including St. Louis.

A line of severe thunderstorms is tracking through the area and parts of the line have already been warned for tornadoes. Tornadoes, damaging wind and hail are possible in any storm.

This tornado watch is one of five total watches active in the central US. Close to 17 million people are within these watch areas.

A new tornado watch is in effect through midnight CDT for more than 1 million people in parts of southern Arkansas, northern Louisiana and northeast Texas, according to the Storm Prediction Center.

“Severe storm development may occur in multiple zones through late afternoon and early evening across the ArkLaTex, with hail/wind and tornadoes all possible with the most intense storms,” the SPC warned.

This tornado watch is one of four total watches active in the central and eastern US.

A line of severe thunderstorms is intensifying as it continues to roll through parts of Missouri and Arkansas this afternoon.

Multiple parts of this line have prompted tornado warnings in the last few hours. These storms will continue to get stronger as they track east.

Clusters of severe thunderstorms also just started to bubble up in northern Mississippi and southwest Tennessee. These storms could get ferocious over the next few hours as they track north and east over more of Tennessee and into Kentucky.

Additional storms have started to develop in parts of Illinois and will move into Indiana this evening.

A severe thunderstorm is producing a tornado in eastern Missouri, just southwest of the St. Louis metro.

The storm developed a classic “hook echo” on radar, which looks sort of like a fishing hook on the back end of the storm. It’s just one way forecasters can spot a potential tornado.

Severe thunderstorms are intensifying rapidly as they plow across the Midwest. The conditions in the atmosphere have now prompted the Storm Prediction Center to issue a “particularly dangerous situation” tornado watch until midnight, local time.

This kind of watch indicates forecasters have high confidence that large, destructive tornadoes will develop this evening. Some of the tornadoes could be EF3 or higher.

Memphis, Tennessee, is the largest city in the watch.

Tornadoes are powerful storms that get more destructive the faster their winds spin. They’re rated from EF0 to EF5 on the Enhanced Fujita or “EF” scale based on estimated wind speeds.

These ratings are assigned long after a tornado is over by National Weather Service crews that survey the kind of damage it left behind to estimate its wind speed.

EF3 tornadoes – which are possible today – have wind speeds of at least 136 mph and inflict some serious damage.

EF3 tornadoes can rip apart entire stories of well-constructed homes, damage large structures like office buildings and shopping malls and completely wipe away anything built on a weak foundation, like mobile homes.

Stronger EF4 tornadoes are also possible. These tornadoes have wind speeds of at least 166 mph and up to 200 mph. They can completely level well-built homes and toss cars in the air like toys.

Thousands of flights are delayed across the United States on Wednesday as dangerous storms and, in some states, tornadoes, roll through the central part of the country.

At 3:30 p.m. ET, 5,005 flights within, into or out of the US were delayed and 728 were canceled, according to the website FlightAware.

Chicago’s major airports led the country with significant delays. 41% of flights leaving O’Hare and 28% of flights leaving Midway were behind schedule.

At Dallas-Fort Worth International Airport, 34% of flights departing were delayed.

American Airlines, Southwest Airlines and United Airlines all had travel advisories Wednesday for passengers wanting to reschedule their flights due to the weather.

Satellite imagery captured the potent storm that’s delivering hazardous weather from southern Canada to the southern United States this afternoon.

The storm’s center can be seen around eastern Iowa in the small, relatively cloud-free area. It’s snowing just north of there.

A cold front extending hundreds of miles south from the storm’s center – denoted by the continuous line of thicker clouds – is what’s generating the current batch of severe thunderstorms stretching from Texas, just north of Dallas, through Arkansas and Missouri.

Some bubbly clouds are moving north over Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama. Those are the result of a lot of moist air rushing north from the Gulf—moisture that’s also fueling today’s extreme weather.

Around 1 million people in the Lower Mississippi Valley between Paducah, Kentucky, and Memphis, Tennessee, are currently facing the highest level of risk for both severe storms, including strong tornadoes, and destructive flooding—an extremely rare combination.

It’s rare to reach the highest level of risk for severe storms (a level 5 of 5 happens in the US about once per year, on average) or for excessive rainfall and flood risk (a level 4 of 4 happens fewer than once per month, on average).

Only once before has the same location been outlooked for the highest level risks for storms and floods by NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center and Weather Prediction Center, respectively, according to a CNN analysis going back over the past decade.

May 20, 2019, saw a level 5 of 5 high risk from the SPC and a level 4 of 4 high risk from the WPC over the state of Oklahoma. The event resulted in more than three dozen tornado reports and flooding that prompted a state of emergency for all 77 Oklahoma counties.

Facing simultaneous threats from tornadoes and flooding can cause confusion when it comes to getting to safety. When sheltering during a tornado, it’s recommended to move to a basement or interior room on the lowest level of a building, whereas during a flood, it’s best to get to higher ground or move to higher levels of a building.

If you find yourself facing imminent threats from a tornado and flash flood, you should shelter in the lowest dry level of a building until after the tornado threat passes.

A tornado watch is in effect for nearly 5 million people in parts of northern and central Arkansas, southern and eastern Missouri and southern Illinois until 4 p.m. CDT Wednesday. The watch contains St. Louis and Little Rock, Arkansas.

A line of severe thunderstorms recently moved into the westernmost portion of the watch. Storms in the next few hours will have damaging winds up to 70 mph, ping pong ball-sized hail up to 1.5 inches and the potential for a few “intense” tornadoes, according to the Storm Prediction Center

Missouri State Highway Patrol captured images of an overturned train and downed trees and power lines in the Missouri towns of Nevada and Moundville after a tornado moved through the area.

No fatalities have been reported in Vernon County, which includes both towns, at this time, the agency said in a post on Facebook.

The county is located in western Missouri on the border with Kansas, about 115 miles south of Kansas City, Missouri.

Several structures are “totally destroyed” in the central Missouri town of Pilot Grove on Wednesday after a severe thunderstorm and tornado, Cooper County Emergency Management Director Larry Oerly told CNN

Oerly said he has no information on any deaths or injuries. A spokesperson for Boone Hospital in the city of Columbia, 40 miles east of Pilot Grove, told CNN their EMS had not yet been contacted for any patient transports.

The Missouri State Highway Patrol has posted several photos of the damage to buildings, power lines and vehicles.

“Troopers are responding to multiple structures being severely damaged and vehicles overturned in Pilot Grove, just south of I-70, in Cooper County,” the patrol said on X.

Route 135, “in and around Pilot Grove, is closed at this time due to multiple power lines across the roadway,” according to the patrol.

Meteorologists use a wide array of weather models and other observations to make the best forecast possible. One of those things is Nadocast, which I sometimes look at as a gut check during an active severe weather day like this.

Nadocast is kind of like AI — it uses machine learning to analyze data and produce probabilities of tornadoes occurring in certain areas.

Its most recent output highlighted western Kansas and Tennessee as the area most at risk of tornadoes today (pink, 30% area). But it also shows strong tornadoes – EF2 or higher – are possible from northern Louisiana to Indiana and Ohio.

The Storm Prediction Center also provides similar probabilities. The difference is those are checked by expert forecasters before they are released. Nadocast is pure machine learning, so often needs to be taken with a grain of salt. The advantage to a model like this is that it can be updated more frequently than the SPC outlooks.

Dangerous severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening will be moving so quickly, people in their path may have mere moments to get to safety, according to the Storm Prediction Center.

Storms in parts of the Plains this morning were moving at 60 mph and this afternoon’s storms will likely be even faster.

“It is important to take action when warnings are issued and not wait to see or hear the signs of a severe storm,” the SPC warned.

A level 5 of 5 high risk of severe thunderstorms is in place today for parts of the Mississippi Valley.

High-risk days are only used when forecasters are very confident conditions are right for widespread, dangerous storms. They’ve occurred on less than 1% days over the past 25 years, according to a CNN analysis of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration data.

But the last high-risk day happened just last month.

A powerful storm set off a tornado outbreak in mid-March that produced more than 100 tornadoes in the central, southern and eastern United States. Many of these same areas could be in the path of violent storms today.

In 2024, there was just one high-risk day of severe thunderstorms—likewise for 2023.

A radar confirmed tornado ripped through a small town about an hour and a half east of Kansas City on Wednesday morning, causing “significant damage” according to the Missouri Highway Patrol.

The tornado hit Pilot Grove, Missouri, just after 9:00 a.m. CDT. The extent of the damage in the area is unclear, but photos showed structural damage to homes and at least one vehicle that was flipped.

There have been multiple confirmed tornadoes Wednesday morning.

A tornado in Owasso, Oklahoma, outside of Tulsa, downed a number of trees and damaged several roofs and homes, according to video from Michelle Heath on Wednesday.

The video shows wooden fences knocked down in multiple places and a downed tree that fell on a house, which had some siding ripped off. Chainsaws could be heard in the distance.

Heath and her 7-year-old got into their storm shelter as the storm passed, she said. Her husband was driving elsewhere and had to pull over because of the storm.

National Weather Service forecasters in Arkansas are sounding the alarm this morning as severe thunderstorms approach the state.

“Today has the making of a serious, severe weather outbreak across the entire state,” the NWS in Little Rock, Arkansas, warned.

Parts of the state are under a level 5 of 5 risk of severe thunderstorms, with violent storms set to impact the area this afternoon and evening.

“Today has the necessary (atmospheric) ingredients in place to be a memorable day severe weather outbreak wise which is quite the declarative statement given the history of severe weather in Arkansas,” the weather service said.

Damaging wind gusts up to 80 mph, hail larger than baseballs and tornadoes are possible in the state. Some tornadoes are likely to be long-lived and could be rated EF3 or stronger.

Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear on Wednesday declared a state of emergency for the commonwealth and urged residents to prepare for a four-day severe weather event that could include damaging winds, tornadoes and hail, as well as major flooding for parts of the state.

“Every risk is on the table,” Beshear said in a video posted on X.

“As we move through the next four days, we are going to see the most rain that many parts of western Kentucky have seen in a long time,” the governor said, adding the heavy rain could cause flooding in areas that don’t normally flood.

Beshear also noted the state is “under some of the most serious weather threats I’ve seen” in his post.

“We need everyone statewide to take this seriously. Tonight, we expect tornadoes, dangerous winds and hail. You need to be prepared. Have alerts on, an emergency kit ready and stay elsewhere if safer,” he wrote.

A rare level 5 of 5 risk of severe thunderstorms is in place for parts of the Mississippi Valley, according to the Storm Prediction Center. Storms in this area could produce multiple long-track tornadoes of EF3 strength or greater.

High risk days are only used when forecasters are very confident that the necessary atmospheric ingredients for severe thunderstorms are in place and will produce widespread, dangerous storms. They’ve occurred on less than 1% days over the past 25 years, according to a CNN analysis of NOAA data.

The last one was issued last month as a part of a multi-day tornado outbreak that killed dozens of people in some of the same areas at risk again today.

Strong tornadoes – rated at least EF2 – are also possible from Louisiana to Ohio. The greatest tornado risk will begin in the afternoon and continue into Wednesday night.

By the evening, severe thunderstorms could stretch from Louisiana and Arkansas to as far north as Michigan. A few more storms could develop overnight in Texas.

The Mississippi Valley could see historic rain and floods this week, with a rare level 4 of 4 high risk of flooding rainfall in effect Thursday for parts of Missouri, Arkansas, Tennessee, Kentucky and Illinois, according to the Weather Prediction Center.

“Extensive, rare, and at times catastrophic, flash flooding is likely… flash flood water levels may reach areas that rarely or have never flooded before,” forecasters at the National Weather Service in Little Rock, Arkansas, said.

It’s hard to overstate just how significant level 4 of 4, high risk flooding events are. They are issued on fewer than 4% of days per year on average, but are responsible for more than 80% of all flood-related damage and 40% of all flood-related deaths, research from the WPC shows.

Forecasters predict storms will work over the same areas repeatedly and could drop 2 to 6 inches of rain each day –– especially from Arkansas to Indiana.

By Saturday, areas caught repeatedly under the heaviest storms could end up with more than 15 inches of rain. The corridor where Arkansas, Missouri, Illinois, Kentucky and Tennessee meet are the most likely place for these extreme totals.